Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016816 0.019039 0.021447 0.024252 0.027430 0.030919 0.035044
2025-08-31 0.013082 0.016087 0.019622 0.024091 0.029595 0.036162 0.044601
2025-09-07 0.011319 0.014727 0.018969 0.024642 0.032043 0.041388 0.054115
2025-09-14 0.009562 0.013026 0.017540 0.023860 0.032502 0.043934 0.060260
2025-09-21 0.008387 0.011890 0.016638 0.023557 0.033411 0.046985 0.067188
2025-09-28 0.007318 0.010748 0.015565 0.022839 0.033581 0.048926 0.072622
2025-10-05 0.006901 0.010473 0.015654 0.023740 0.036091 0.054332 0.083484
2025-10-12 0.006457 0.010099 0.015543 0.024300 0.038101 0.059125 0.093809
2025-10-19 0.006086 0.009791 0.015487 0.024915 0.040212 0.064205 0.104983
2025-10-26 0.005593 0.009238 0.014992 0.024773 0.041083 0.067370 0.113318
2025-11-02 0.005191 0.008792 0.014619 0.024778 0.042165 0.070925 0.122553
2025-11-09 0.004747 0.008232 0.014008 0.024321 0.042413 0.073083 0.129552
2025-11-16 0.004470 0.007940 0.013829 0.024606 0.043987 0.077675 0.141318
2025-11-23 0.004141 0.007528 0.013412 0.024434 0.044743 0.080910 0.150961
2025-11-30 0.003959 0.007362 0.013407 0.024993 0.046851 0.086701 0.165786
2025-12-07 0.003597 0.006833 0.012703 0.024200 0.046376 0.087715 0.171659
2025-12-14 0.003339 0.006474 0.012281 0.023892 0.046780 0.090376 0.180903
2025-12-21 0.003051 0.006034 0.011668 0.023164 0.046297 0.091284 0.186730
2025-12-28 0.002989 0.006029 0.011885 0.024078 0.049130 0.098877 0.206722
2026-01-04 0.002889 0.005939 0.011929 0.024646 0.051306 0.105320 0.224892
2026-01-11 0.002801 0.005867 0.012000 0.025270 0.053641 0.112265 0.244717
2026-01-18 0.002640 0.005629 0.011715 0.025126 0.054343 0.115865 0.257618
2026-01-25 0.002506 0.005436 0.011509 0.025131 0.055360 0.120204 0.272508